arker

Tuesday, 19 August 2008

Its Here

Solar Cycle 24 Arrived on 04 January 2008

The Time,  according to your computer,  is :

The Displayed  "Coordinated Universal Time" accessed by the  link below, is based on a large number of atomic clocks 

connected through a "grid".  It is a very accurate and precise time value.  The "Official UTC Time" 

listed on this web site  is so accurate that you can almost set your watch by it.

id You know that :

Geomagnetic storm levels are determined by the estimated 3-hourly Planetary K-indices which are derived in real time from a 

network of western hemisphere ground-based magnetometers.

Credit Mixed Sources including  ISP, NOAA, U.S. Air Force, SIDC, U.S. Dept of Commerce,Self-Calculations-KC4COP

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Solar Map showing Active Regions (contain sunspots) EIT 284 Image / 

SIDC (World Data Center for Sunspots) ; Royal Observatory of Belgium                                 

SEC / NOAA Complete Solar Weather and Geomagnetic Condition Statement and 3-Day Forecast

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Please refresh your browser to insure that you are seeing the latest information. Much of the data on the Website is frequently updated (i.e. minutes up to 3-hrs)   ←

QRV............  Are You Ready?

The Appearance of Sunspot 981 Marked the Beginning of Solar Cycle 24

Important Webmaster note: 

 

	19 Aug 2008; 04:34 UTC:  Change in NCDXF/IARU Beacon Transmission Schedule. If you want to check and see if the bands are open to the "Lands Down Under", (we include both Australia and New Zealand in that category), you'll need to depend on something other than the NCDXF/IARU Beacons for that information. For an undetermined time, beacons ZL6B, New Zealand, and VK6RBP, Australia, are out of commission. Beacon, LU4AA, Austria, remains off the air Revised NCDXF/IARU Beacon schedule as of 18 August 2008.
	18 Aug 2008; 17:50 UTC: We hope that everyone that wanted to found some way to participate in last weekend's Perseids Meteor Shower (MS). The next major meteor shower is the Leonid MS in November. There is sufficient time to be well prepared for the Leonid shower. Periodically, we will be adding new information on the 2008 shower and the mechanics of meteor scatter communications. If you are interested in meteor scatter communication or would like to see how schedules are established for meteor scatter communication, see what is offered on the Ping Jockey website. As a reminder, you don't have have a meteor shower to use this mode of communications. We will be commenting on why this so very soon. This will provide an opportunity to learn techniques and start developing proficiency before commencement of show time.
	05 Aug 2008: The Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for July 2008 have been posted.

Smoothed Sunspot (Ri) numbers have been posted for July, 2008. A total of 61 stations reported their data to the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) on 01 Aug 2008. The data reported by these stations is the source for July 2008's smoothed sunspot report. Please keep in mind that these are preliminary numbers. The concept(s) involving smoothed sunspot numbers are among the most important information  required to understand all of the current propagation models. (The term "current" is used deliberately as at least one propagation model under development does not depend solely on  sunspot numbers as the source of solar irradiation. A very interesting concept that we hope to be able to report on sometime in the future.)  KC4COP The Solar Influences Data analysis Center (SIDC) releases a bulletin on the first day of a month for the preceding month's international smoothed sunspot numbers. Location of the data may be a little difficult if the bulletin is missed. For that reason, we will return to publishing that data on the Website so that it is easy to find any time during the month. The July data marks the second month of our return to publishing this report. The table contains preliminary data. Final numbers come several months after the monthly bulletin is released. The data is listed as Ri,  short for "Provisional (temporary) International monthly mean Sunspot Number". A very brief explanation of how the numbers are calculated is located at the "About Smoothed Sunspot Ri" bookmark on the Sunspot Number Ri page of the Website. This Website also publishes "intermediate" and "advanced" explanations of the calculations involved in determining the Ri number. Published sunspot numbers (there are multiple ways that the sunspot number may be  reported-explanations available on this Website) are always calculated - not manually or machine counted. We hope that publishing this data will be helpful.

05 Aug 2008; 05:06 UTC:  Many readers most likely do not get security alerts directly. A portion of an  advisory from Microsoft containing release dates 01 Aug 2008 and 04 Aug 08 follows: "Microsoft Security Advisory (954960) contains a statement on email updates that could be important to you and the health of your computer. The Webmaster received two such emails in as many days. The two emails were flushed from his system prior to receiving the following warning.

"If you receive an e-mail message that claims to be distributing
a Microsoft security update, it is a hoax that may contain
malware or pointers to malicious Web sites. Microsoft does
not distribute security updates via e-mail."
 

Field Day has passed and the stories being told of it are getting old enough that some of the facts have started to grow elements not present with earlier tellings. A ham would never call tales of radio exploits a lie. We use to say that "while a man's tales could grow pictures never lie". Well, that is no longer true either. As a the written word can grow so can the visual expression of it. This picture of our radio club (WCARE) during Saturday night's operation is true to life. The expression that "a picture is worth a thousand words" still holds as being true. Craig, Williamson County Amateur Radio Emergency Service, Field Day 2008, Franklin, Tennessee

CAPS (Communication Alert and Prediction System) - A program useful for better understanding the ionosphere.

CAPS is an interactive program that permits travel through the different layers of the Ionosphere. The user is able to see what happens to his transmitted signal when he is using "sky-wave" propagation. The CAPS program can help build a better understanding of how reflection, refraction, absorption, etc. influence the radio signal as it is launched from Earth on a path that will take the signal into the Ionosphere and back to Earth. Space weather alerts and reports can become more meaningful after one has flown or swam through the Ionosphere several times because terms become easily understood 3-D graphic representations. An example can be seen in a recent Space Weather Prediction Center's alert "Alert: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu"

After reading the above alert, a ham can visually appreciate how this condition can effect his transmitted signal's path.

With the new tool, a ham will be able to play out the consequences of a specific event (such as in the above example). With the knowledge of the event's timing (from the report itself) our ham should be able to formulate an accurate HF propagation forecast. The tool will help the ham consider the event's effect on the forecast rather than have him just skip over the influence that the event may have on the propagation forecast.

Does this sound exciting? If it does not - then you are on the wrong website. Cost of the program? CAPS is free to individual hams.

 

	It is expected that many hams that are interested in studying HF propagation would like to know how to locate and identify beacons established on the amateur bands. The Northern California DX Foundation, Inc., maintains 18-beacons world wide on the ham DX bands as an aid to propagation now-casting.   Other organizations and some individuals have established beacons as well. We find it difficult to provide accurate listings of beacons outside of the ones operated by the Northern California DX Foundation. Nevertheless, a web page is published that lists some of beacons that have been - and may continue to be operational. The Beacon List International page contains information on these devices. Please help us keep this listing current.   Efforts are being made to use location marking beacons as propagation aids. This is a slow process as our inquiries often go unanswered. Perhaps our motives are viewed as suspect. Hopefully information will be more forthcoming at some point in time after we have been investigated enough to quell suspicions. In the meantime, a number of fixed commercial stations operating in the HF bands are being used as indicators for propagation. The frequencies used by some of these stations fall into the amateur radio 40-meter band. Our current list goes as high as 15 MHz
	Many of the central themes of this Website revolve around the ionosphere - its definition and composition. Amateur radio operators can turn in many directions and sample just about any aspect of radio wave communication we choose. Most hams using the high frequency (HF) amateur bands do so looking to communicate with foreign stations (DX) or stations distant to their own QTH. On 80-meters a long distance QSO (contact) may cross several states; on 40-meters we expect to be able to cross countries and on 20-meters, 15-meters and 10-meters we expect to cross datelines. The ionosphere's refraction and reflection of our HF radio waves and subsequent reflections off of Earth's surfaces of returning HF waves let's us bounce our way around the globe. Information on agencies that report ionospheric data helpful to hams wishing to work DX is usually limited to only a few of the many agencies and organizations actually in operation. Most hams interested in DX are familiar with NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and the Australian's IPS Radio and Space Services agencies. Just about any information useful for propagation nowcasting and forecasting is available from these sources. We try to build on the "just about" qualification by supplying our readers with information on numerous other sources that are rich in helpful information and friendly to the amateur radio community. Dozens of articles on these other sources of information have appeared on the pages of the Website. We will continue to publicize organizations that supply data helpful to hams interested in high frequency radio wave propagation. Once such organization is the National Geophysical Data Center.   The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), a division of NOAA, is one of several agencies studying the ionosphere via Vertical Incidence Soundings (Ionograms). Much of the work at NGDC involving ionograms comes from the Ionospheric Physics Group (of NGDC). It operates the Ionosphere portion of the World Data Center for Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Boulder, Colorado. The NOAA Space Environment Center, NOAA National Geodetic Survey, and NOAA National Geophysical Data Center are cooperating in an effort to disseminate ionospheric data. Unfortunately a very large number of WWW links these agencies post concerning ionospheric data achieves and near real-time data sources are dead-ends at this time. Data achieves may consist of pictures graphs ionograms, etc. The traditional reports and data sources are mostly functional though URLs change and the original URLs are eventually turned off. Other Duties and Responsibilities: "NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) provides scientific stewardship, products, and services for geophysical data from the Sun to the Earth and Earth's sea floor and solid earth environment, including Earth observations from space." Ionograms are mentioned in a number of articles on the Website. An introductory article is included titled "Ionospheric Sounding - A quick look at an area in transit". A second article details the determination of the critical frequencies including  foF2, foF1, and foE. The article discusses the mechanics used in the determination of parameters such as virtual heights including h'F, and h'F2. The ionogram in this article is framed in an historical prospective showing the flow of propagation studies starting with early sun spot counting methods and progresses through the use of  today's ionosonde. Several pages on Vertical Incidence Soundings are included in the Site's search engine index. Unfortunately (our opinion), most Website pages that include material on ionograms are not indexed at this time. This mini-article features the National Geophysical Data Center. It is one in a series of mini-articles on Agencies and organizations that supply amateur radio operators with the data needed for us to do our own propagation studies and forecasts. No article, mini- or otherwise that mentions Vertical Incidence Sounding is complete unless it mentions the Australian IPS Radio and Space Services agency. We would still be discussing dinosaurs when we talk about ionograms without the IPS's contributions, as a governmental agency and through the personal contributions of its personnel. The Webmaster is a member of INAG - Ionosonde Network Advisory Group. Readers with an interest in and knowledge of ionograms are invited to join our group. Papers are frequently solicited. INAG is supported by IPS Radio and Space Services.
	12 Mar 2008; 04:55 UTC: Mention was made yesterday of the NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite. ACE is a NASA Explorer mission spacecraft. The "Explorer mission" makes it all NASA. ACE's location at the Lagrangian Point L1 in space and the science instrumentation it carries says "this space craft is unique to NASA". Yet, this space craft is frequently misidentified as a being a NOAA satellite. The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), a division of NOAA's National Weather Bureau, seems to be is the primary source for the dissemination of the multiple data feeds originating from the satellite. The attractive graphical data displays seen on most space weather oriented website originate with NOAA. Often these displays on websites fail to mention NASA. The fact that NOAA is the author of the Integrated Service Change Plan. for the discontinuation of the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite's services and data adds to the confusion over the ownership of ACE. ACE was launched in August of 1997. ACE Real Time Solar Wind (RTSW) data has been made available to the public by NOAA through cooperation with the ACE project since 1998. The ACE Science Center serves as the interface between project scientists and the Flight Operations Team. March 16 2008; 03:35 UTC: The Ace Termination of Services page has been returned to the Website navigation structure. There is a section on the page, Why Will ACE Not Be Replaced ?  Webmaster's Note: That should be of interest to amateur radio operators. If you are a ham, please read this section. It is important.
	11 Mar 2008; 05:59 UTC: Reasons for Poor HF Conditions during the previous 72-hour period. Any person, ham through AM broadcast band listener, knows that propagation from 30 MHz down has been poor for much of the past week. In the KC4COP ham shack beacons throughout this frequency range are monitored almost constantly. The monitor logs are tied to a UTC clock so that propagation conditions, evidenced by received beacon activity, can be closely correlated with solar and geophysical conditions. The working definition for "closely" in the shack falls into the following parameters and ranges: The most critical parameter is "Time". Identification of many of the beacons depends on matching a received signal with an accurate clock. A clock set to Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) is constantly regulated by a series of 5 to 10 precise time servers (based on atomic clocks) having Internet delay times of 30-60 ms. Approximately 30 time servers are tested every six hours. Five to ten servers with Internet delay times of less than 50 ms are selected. This smaller group is tested every 30 to 60 minutes during the times being closely studied. This is the best way to be sure of a beacon's identity. All of the beacons operating in the amateur radio bands transmit on closely timed schedules. "Universal Time" may be the most complex subject in all of the physical sciences. The Webmaster has made a study of the subject for the past 48 years and he does not feel competent to discus the topic in anything other than general terms. That being the case, a working definition of universal time is given in the glossary. The physics referenced in the definition may be simplistic but the definition should be understood by all. There are a number of parameters that reflect solar and geomagnetic conditions. Bulletins, alerts, warning, and predictions from NOAA and other space weather agencies can be used in the selection of the parameters to study. Charts and graphs giving real-time data are updated every minute. A one stop shopping place for real-time data is published by Space Weather Prediction Center on the World Wide Web. Real-time data from NASA's ACE satellite is also available on the Web. Split second timing is necessary for propagation beacon identification. It is not necessary for the collection of solar and geomagnetic data. But these conditions can change rapidly. The source of the data is known. The source may be a simple as identifying data originating with Earth's Sun and processed through the NASA / ACE satellite. Contamination from other objects beyond the Sun can be ignored at our present level of sophistication in understanding HF propagation. Studying real-time data being updated by the minute can be exciting during times of rapid changes in propagation. It can get tedious during times when one minute's data looks pretty much the same as all of the surrounding minutes. Data such as the geophysical measurement, Kp-Index, that is determined every 3-hours can make for an interesting study during those times. How does the above help explain propagation in the HF bands? Looking back over various time periods we can get a good picture of that. For example, let's take a look at the SIDC Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity. A portion of the bulletin is published below. The complete bulletin is available from the SIDC. :Issued: 2008 Mar 10 1607 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity             # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# WEEK 375 from 2008 Mar 03  SOLAR ACTIVITY -------------- Only one small sunspot group was observed this week. Solar activity thus remained very low during the entire week. The X-ray flux remained below A1 level and the 10.7cm flux was close to its lowest possible value, at 68 sfu. A large recurrent coronal hole in the Southern hemisphere rotated in a geoeffective position by the end of the week. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY -------------------- The week started with a decaying fast solar wind stream. The geomagnetic field was temporarily unsettled early on March 3. Then, it remained quiet until March 8. On that date, the Earth entered a recurrent solar wind stream. The solar wind speed then rose stepwise to a maximum of 650 km/s on March 9. This induced active to minor storm conditions on March 9. This solar wind disturbance will probably cause unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions during the first two days of next week.

15 Mar 2008: The problem with the server continues. Many portions of the Website are inaccessible for updating. This includes the Website's various indexes, archived pages, and certain links. The problem has continued since early in the last week of February. Frustration? The word comes no where close to describing the situation. A number of misspelled words that can not be corrected are glaring at all and I can't correct them!   What are the implications concerning the data sets published as automatic updates? The data coming from NOAA and NASA has not been interrupted. When problems of this nature occur some data on the Website continues to be updated without any interruption of service. Automatic data feeds from NOAA, NASA, and several other selected space weather agencies continues without  interruption. Data from several satellites, including ACE and SOHO, continues to be updated on the published schedule. Automatic data feeds and reports from space weather satellites and agencies are put on and are taken off line from time to time. Data that is automatically updated is accompanied by a comment stating that fact and a long with the update schedule. These updates are made using pathways different from the mechanical update pathway originating from our "on-the-ground" station. The server maintains continuous contact with the automatic services. Correspondence between agencies and the Webmaster and many reports take manual routes. We hope to change some of the daily reports from manual update to automatic status. The number of scheduled space weather reports and the ease of their availability has grown considerably over the past several years. It is for these and other reasons that we have ceased to update this material. This policy will continue at least for the time being.

Solar Cycle 24 began on 04 January 2008. Immediately below are several facts on the beginning Solar Cycle 24 and how the date of 04 January 2008 was chosen to mark the start of the new solar cycle. Additional material on this event is located in our short article titled  "Solar Cycle 24 a new beginning" Solar Cycle 24 a new beginning is a continuation of the article posted below (Solar Cycle 24 Begins!) . These articles explain the measurable changes that must take place to declare an end to the state of solar minimum of one solar cycle and the beginning of the next 11-year solar cycle. The terms used in the article are defined in simple but correct terms. Amateur radio operators and short wave listeners have a real need to understand the fundamentals of solar activity if they wish to get the most from their radios. Knowledge of the 11-year solar cycle is a good place to start. In this article we describe the start of the Cycle. If you think that solar cycles are strictly delineated by a change in the smooth sun spot number, it may be a good idea for you to review the information in this article.   SOLAR CYCLE 24 BEGINS! What marks the beginning of a new solar cycle? Is there a physical phenomena - a measurable event - or is a new cycle marked by graphs that indicate an overall increase in solar activity? The answer: Working Definition: Using the Sun's grid of latitude and longitude as the reference point, a new solar cycle begins with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot. The Occurrence: A solar region appeared on 11 December 2007, that fulfilled several of these requirements. On the 11th, a magnetically reversed region appeared at 24 degrees N. The 12 December 2007, Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity issued jointly by the Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force contained the statement: A northern plage region with reverse polarity characteristics, according to GONG magnetograms, is the only other solar feature of note. credit: Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2007 The magnetically reversed region fulfilled several of the criteria for the beginning point of Solar Cycle 24? The missing element was that the region was not a sunspot. On 04 January 2008, all of the requirements for the start of Solar Cycle 24 were fulfilled with Sunspot 981's appearance on the solar surface. Article continued with "Solar Cycle 24 a new beginning"

 

21 Dec 2007; 20:28 UTC: This year's Geminid meteor shower provided great opportunity for meteor scatter propagation communications. Mad, not just angry-but mad, spitting mad. A few of the words and phrases that you would have heard had you been standing in the webmasters ham shack just minutes ago. Once again a great meteor shower has come and gone. And once again your Webmaster missed it. What's the fuss? The webmaster, and possibly you, missed the Geminid Meteor Shower. This year, meteors in excess of a 140 per hour brightened the sky. In addition to the high meteor rate, a number of fireballs composed the December 14 through 15, 2007, Geminid meteor shower. (rate quoted spaceweather.com  - ) Amateur radio operators can observe and take advantage of meteor showers in ways other than just watching dust and other small particles catch fire as they fall through the Earth's atmosphere. In addition to visually tracking small meteors, hams can bounce radio waves off of the ionized gas trails the vaporizing particles leave behind them. Radio waves, particularly VHF radio waves, can bounce off of the ionized gas trails that burning particles create as they descend from a comet's orbital and fall through the ionosphere. Normally most transmitted VHF radio waves traveling in a direction away from Earth are either absorbed by various layers in the ionosphere, or they continued their travel on out into space. Should a radio wave intersect a gas trail, it may be reflected by the ionized materials back toward Earth. The reflected wave may be received by stations much farther in distance from the transmitting source than normal propagation (basically line-of-sight) would permit. This type of propagation is commonly called "meteor scatter propagation". The time span of contact through meteor scatter is short - often just a few seconds. If you're disappointed in missing the Geminid shower, please pay particular attention to the next article. You're getting a second chance. Take a look at some still images and brief movies of falling Gemini meteors.         WEBMASTER'S NOTE: Movies include the explosions of two fireballs

21 Dec 2007; 17:15 UTC: 1980 Then 1994 is 2007 Next? Out of the sky - the direction of "Ursa Minor", to be exact comes the recurring Ursids Meteor Shower. The meteor shower is expected to peak between the hours of 21:00 and 22:00 UTC, 22 December 2007. The Ursids in 1980 and 1994 were exciting showers with shooting stars appearing in bursts.  www.spaceweather.com This annual shower can be light (a few shooting stars per hour) or can come in as a burst. Some meteor shower forecasters, including astronomer Peter Jenniskens of the SETI Institute, predict a heavier than usual shower for this December 22. Actually, most of the astronomers are using the words "possible" or "maybe" before saying the phrase "heavier than usual" - but a heavy shower is likely enough that most or our readers in the Western Hemisphere will want to look outside. Jenniskens and colleagues, predict that the Ursids shower will peak on 22 December 2007, between between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC. The eastern part, and much of the central part of the United States will have darkness at the time. Viewers with clear skies will have to contend with a bright moon. Anticipating the que